There’s one story dominating the news in Japan these days: the rice shortage and its soaring prices.
Only a few years ago, bags of rice lined the supermarket shelves in abundance, and anyone could buy their staple food without a second thought. Now, rice has become something of a luxury—almost out of reach for many households. In 2025, it’s no longer unusual to find people sighing in front of the rice section, muttering, “Still expensive today, too…” or, just as often, discovering that the shelves are completely empty.
↑ Store shelf stickers say "we regret to inform you that, due to the ongoing rice shortage, we are currently unable to guarantee a stable supply. Starting in January, we kindly ask that each household limit their rice purchases to one bag per visit. We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this may cause and appreciate your understanding and cooperation"
When Did the Rice Shortage Begin?
Looking back, the trouble started in the summer of 2023. Japan was struck by a record-breaking heatwave, devastating the quality of premium rice varieties like Koshihikari. Farmers everywhere said, “We’ve never seen a year like this,” while wholesalers and retailers raised the alarm—stockpiles were running dangerously low.
Despite these warning signs, the government repeatedly insisted, “There’s plenty of rice.” This was meant to prevent panic buying. But as the weeks passed, supermarket shelves gradually emptied, and prices crept ever higher. Still, the official message in the media was, “No need to worry.”
How Rice Prices Doubled
Eventually, the situation became so severe it was dubbed “the Reiwa Rice Panic.” By autumn 2024, a 5-kg bag of rice had climbed past ¥3,000. By spring 2025, the price broke through ¥4,000—a bag of rice had truly become a luxury.
It was only then that the government finally admitted the crisis and decided to release reserve rice onto the market. The catch? The rice being released was “kokokokumai”—harvested back in 2021. What was once considered only good enough for processing or even animal feed was now being sold at prices rivaling freshly harvested rice. Both consumers and shop owners couldn’t help but mutter, “I can’t believe it’s come to this.”
Why Is Old Rice So Expensive?
The days when “old rice equals cheap rice” are long gone. The underlying problem is that the market’s baseline price has shifted dramatically upward. Whether you’re buying new-crop or aged rice, distribution, polishing, and even anti-hoarding policies have kept prices stubbornly high. Farmers, too, can’t afford to sell at a loss—slashing prices could drive them out of business, and ultra-cheap rice would just attract opportunistic resellers. No matter how you look at it, the days of “ideal bargains” are over.
The Engel Coefficient and the Squeeze on Everyday Life
It’s not just rice that’s gotten more expensive. In 2024, Japan’s Engel coefficient—the percentage of household spending that goes to food—shot up to 28.3%, the highest in 43 years.
Prices Keep Rising, But Wages Don’t
And it’s not just food prices. Take cars, for example: in 1995, a brand-new Toyota Corolla cost about one million yen. Today, the same car will set you back more than two million. Prices have nearly doubled. But real wages over the past thirty years have actually gone down, eroding our purchasing power bit by bit. In a healthy capitalist economy, a little inflation can be a good thing—a sign of growth. The real problem in Japan is that our paychecks aren’t keeping up. In fact, they’re shrinking.
What’s Next for Our Daily Lives?
After the summer of 2025, the government’s release of reserve rice may bring temporary price relief. But if another heatwave or natural disaster strikes, shortages and sky-high prices could easily return. The sight of a 5-kg bag of rice selling for ¥1,500 on supermarket specials—once an everyday scene—is already fading into memory.
In Closing – What Rice Tells Us About Japan Today
The aroma of freshly cooked rice has always been a symbol of comfort in Japanese homes. Yet now, even this most fundamental staple is no longer guaranteed. This new reality speaks volumes about the hardships and economic uncertainty facing ordinary people in Japan.
As we navigate the uncertainties of politics, climate, and the global economy, one question grows ever more urgent: how can we protect the meals on our tables? For many of us, that’s the new everyday challenge—one that’s only likely to grow in the years ahead.
